The DailyAlts Playbook
The DailyAlts Playbook is the ultimate insider newsletter for the alternative investment industry. Economist Garrett Baldwin covers the big headlines, the stories behind the scenes, and goes on the record with some of the top names in finance to get their take on major events affecting the global capital markets. The DailyAlts Playbook is an in-depth, daily read that drives discussion, entertains and raises your Alternative IQ.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK June 4, 2020 DailyAlts Playbook: America on Fire, Goldman Shorts the Dollar, a $41 Trillion Hole, and the Death of Pensions. PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, It looks like the private equity industry has scored one of its biggest wins in its history. The Labor Department today issued guidance that effectively allows 401K…
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DailyAlts Playbook: America on Fire, Goldman Shorts the Dollar, a $41 Trillion Hole, and the Death of Pensions.
Friday morning, I was out for dental surgery and now I have another surgery in two weeks. Three days ago, I would have told you that the biggest threat to the market rally was the renewed tensions between the United States and China.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK May 26, 2020 DailyAlts Playbook: Hertz Goes Under, The Vaccine Gold Rush, and Just How Rich is Mark Zuckerberg PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, I hope everyone had a wonderful Memorial Day weekend, despite the ongoing circumstances. While efforts to reopen parts of the U.S. continued over the weekend, I wasn’t surprised to…
DailyAlts Playbook: Hedge Fund Returns, Fed Testimony, Alts Investments, and a Hypothetical Day at the Office
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will testify before the Senate Banking Committee. This is the first time that both men will update Congress on the $2.2 trillion economic package that the Senate helped to pass in March to address COVID.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK May 18, 2020 DailyAlts Playbook: Vaccine Hopes, Bitcoin Jolts, Softbank’s Woes, and Community Banking 101 PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, With the Dow up 700 points on speculation around Moderna’s vaccine trial for COVID-19, I’ll start with a brief note on what’s happening at DailyAlts. Yesterday, we published the May Community Bank Investor…
The Dow shed 200 points this morning, and while I’m usually not overcommitted to what the Dow is doing, I am looking at geopolitical tensions. We’re back into a barking match with China – this time because the White House has blamed its rival for the spread of COVID. That said, Chinese media are now arguing that if the U.S. blocks supplies of semiconductors to tech firm Huawei, China will launch its “unreliable entity list” and “restrict or investigate” companies like Apple, Cisco, and other tech firms.
DailyAlts Playbook: Back to Basics, Druckenmiller’s Warning, More Stimulus, and Activists Do What Activists Do…
I’m back in the saddle today after a two-day break that was sorely needed. The combination of an arthritic flare and stomach issue has put me back at around 50% to 60%.
Three days is when people start to worry, so I appreciate the emails.
I am very excited about the future and what we are building at DailyAlts.com.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK May 8, 2020 DailyAlts Playbook: Unemployment Woes, Economic Experiments, M&A Woes, and China… China… China. OPENING BELL Good morning, Good morning, There is one figure – and one figure only that matters today. And the U.S. Labor Department reported it before the bell. The agency said that the U.S. unemployment rate hit…
This morning, Johns Hopkins University announced that more than 3.65 million official cases of COVID-19 around the globe. States across the country will reopen their economies this week. Florida has opened restaurants with social distancing guidelines in place. California will permit clothing stores, flower shops, and bookstores to provide curbside pickup. And New York will let construction, manufacturing, and certain retail employees return to work. The official U.S. tally of coronavirus cases topped 1.2 million on Tuesday evening.
DailyAlts Playbook: Buffett Ditches Airlines, Wall Street Movies, Black Swans, and Stimulus Estimates.
This morning CNBC is covering the Berkshire Hathaway meeting the same way that ESPN covers the day after “The Last Dance” on ESPN. The big focus is on Buffett’s message “Nothing can basically stop America.” But my two key takeaways – as I assess Buffett’s career and philosophy – center on Berkshire’s decisions during March. My generation is one that looks at Buffett as a nice grandfather who likes to spend time with the family – not the ruthless businessman who was able to get General Electric to pay him 10% in 2008 on top of $3 billion in stock. It’s one of the reasons why people say “You mean the guy getting ice cream with his grandkids in HBO’s Too Big to Fail.”
The DailyAlts Playbook: Two Years of COVID? ,The Meb Faber Interview, Amazon’s Coronavirus Shift, and Tesla Tussles…
The coronavirus has now officially affected more than 3.27 million people, with nearly 234,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. Last night, China announced that the Hubei province – where officials first detected COVID-19 – will start to relax its lockdown rules starting tomorrow. The province’s health commission announced Friday that it will decrease its emergency response level to its second-highest grade tomorrow. Elsewhere around the globe, Iran, Russia, and Singapore reported an increase in cases. Meanwhile, in the U.S., major airlines have announced plans to require passengers to start wearing face masks or facial coverings from check-in to departing the plane.
DailyAlts Playbook: Chinese Firms Hit the Exits, Musk’s Rant on “Fascism”, Hedge Fund Returns, and Unemployment Totals
This morning, all eyes are on the U.S. Department of Labor as it reports the latest figure on unemployment benefits across the United States. More than 30 million people are now seeking unemployment benefits across America. The news comes a day after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that we are facing the worst economy in history. Powell said after the two-day FOMC meeting that Americans can expect to see terrible economic data during the second quarter. He also said that the Fed is prepared to provide more liquidity to the market and suggested that small businesses may need additional funding to keep their lights on.
DailyAlts Playbook: Icahn’s Victory Lap, An Opening Worth Celebrating, The Fed Talks, and the End of Mergers as We Know It.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 29, 2020 DailyAlts Playbook: Icahn’s Victory Lap, An Opening Worth Celebrating, The Fed Talks, and the End of Mergers as We Know It. PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, There is a plan. No, not the Federal Reserve. No, not from the White House. Major League Baseball is considering a plan that would…
DailyAlts Playbook: Gundlach Shorts, Technical Wizards, Germany’s Economy, PE Lobbying, and the Lakers Take a Loan…
The Federal Reserve will kick off its two-day meeting to discuss monetary policy in the wake of the history coronavirus outbreak. The Fed has taken extraordinary steps to stimulate the U.S. economy, including slashing interest rates to zero and buying junk bonds. The central bank will likely not announce any new plans until it has further information on the state of the American economy. The economy, which could face levels of unemployment we haven’t seen in more than 80 years, could take more than 18 months to recover. However, we could see some sectors fail to return to their pre-COVID strengths.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Incentives for Work, Crude Crushed, Monty Bennett Keeps the Money, and Cuomo’s Collective
We start this morning with Scott Minerd’s take on the V-shaped recovery, unintended consequences of fiscal and monetary policy, and the moral hazard facing our economy.
The CIO of Guggenheim Partners dropped his latest insights in the middle of the night, and they’re quite jarring. If you don’t know Minerd, be sure to read his analysis during the COVID crisis.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Long Agriculture, Short Peloton Rides, Crypto Sentiment, and the Slump in Hedge Fund AUM
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 24, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook: Long Agriculture, Short Peloton Rides, Crypto Sentiment, and the Slump in Hedge Fund AUM PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, “He told me to go into farming.” That was the opening line of a column I wrote in 2011 about famed investor Jim Rogers. When I was coming…
The DailyAlts Playbook: The Madness of Shorting Tesla, Expedia’s Capital Raise, the Belt Road Initiative, and “Gooooooold.”
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 22, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks About The Madness of Shorting Tesla, Expedia’s Capital Raise, the Belt Road Initiative, and “Gooooooold.” PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, Yesterday, I received a text from a close friend who had an idea. He wanted to short a stock that was trading at nosebleed levels, had…
On Monday, oil futures fell into negative territory for the first time in market history. With expiration taking place today, producers were forced to pay traders to take crude off their hands at the delivery point at Cushing, Oklahoma. Crude for May delivery fell to negative $37.63 per barrel. This morning, the June contract fell 24% to $15.50, while the Brent crude contract shed nearly 19%.
The DailyAlts Playbook: $0 Oil, How to Play Recreational Cannabis, and Why Macy’s Is Selling RE-backed Bonds…
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 20, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks $0 Oil, How to Play Recreational Cannabis, and Why Macy’s Is Selling RE-backed Bonds… PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, Please forgive my tardiness – but as an economist, I’m trying to figure out what kind of scotch to use to help these oil prices make sense…
The DailyAlts Playbook: How to Disappear, Ugly Economic Numbers, Rental Bailouts, and Just How Long Harvard Thinks We’ll Be Locked Inside Our Homes.
Last week, more than 6.6 million new workers filed for unemployment benefits. This week, the figure topped 5.2 million, bringing the total number of Americans unemployed to 22 million. We have formally wiped out all job gains since the end of the Great Recession.
DailyAlts Playbook: Talks Ackman’s CNBC Defense, Earnings Season Blues, and Hedge Funds’ Small Business Cash Hubbalooza
This morning, the Dow Futures projected a 400-point decline as investors continue to digest the ongoing status of the coronavirus.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will halt all funding to the World Health Organization as the White House completes its review of the coronavirus outbreak.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Ray Dalio, Weezer Cover Bands, Bank Earnings, and Big Problems at Lime Asset Management.
This morning, financial companies started earnings season with a flurry of reports. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) kicked off the day with news that it has set aside a large amount of cash over fears of potential customer defaults. The firm reported earnings per share of $0.01, much lower than the $0.33 expected among analysts. The firm also missed revenue expectations by a large amount. “Our results were impacted by a $3.1 billion reserve build, which reflected the expected impact these unprecedented times could have on our customers,” said CFO John Shrewsberry said this morning.
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 13, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks About Academic Suppression, Cuban 2020, Loan Standards, and Daft Punk to DJ Shadow PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, We return from the holiday weekend with some greater confirmation that this virus likely didn’t come from a Seafood market in China. Of course, we won’t ever be…
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 9, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks Helicopter Money, Pyromaniac Bank Rules, Black Swan Blowout, and Labor Woes PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, I am running late right now because I’m trying to wrap my head around today’s jobless claims and then the Fed’s helicopter money response. The central bank is pumping $2.3…
DailyAlts Playbook Talks Ackman’s Optimism, The Big “Short-ier”, Carbon Skeptics, and Now That’s Music 29
A number of funds saw massive gains during the breakdown in the market between February 20 and March 20. The latest manager to generate headlines is Kevin Smith at Crescat Capital. His two primary funds earned 40.5% and 34.5% during that period. Smith’s co-portfolio manager compared this selloff and their gains to the book The Big Short. While there are always winners, there are also losers. It appears that Bridgewater and Third Point, both run by dynamic managers, had a tough quarter. Bridgewater’s main fund reportedly lost 20% during the quarter. Dan Loeb’s Third Point had an 11% loss last month. Finally, Glenview shed 30% on paper during Q1.