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Crypto-assets appear in a revived and refreshed bull market, the analyst writes. Senior Bloomberg Commodity Analyst Mike McGlone weighs in with a very bullish prognosis for crypto-assets in the September edition of Bloomberg’s Crypto Outlook 2021. Considering cryptos such as bitcoin and ethereum are lifting off in the second half of the year from levels…
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Private Equity: Northwestern Studies Industry’s Crisis Reaction
Filippo Mezzanotti, an Assistant Professor of Finance at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, has been studying how private equity fares in a crisis.
He examined data from nearly 500 PE-backed companies in the United Kingdom before and after the Great Recession. He and his research team found that d that PE-backed companies weathered the crisis better than other companies.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Long Agriculture, Short Peloton Rides, Crypto Sentiment, and the Slump in Hedge Fund AUM
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 24, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook: Long Agriculture, Short Peloton Rides, Crypto Sentiment, and the Slump in Hedge Fund AUM PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, “He told me to go into farming.” That was the opening line of a column I wrote in 2011 about famed investor Jim Rogers. When I was coming…
The DailyAlts Playbook: The Madness of Shorting Tesla, Expedia’s Capital Raise, the Belt Road Initiative, and “Gooooooold.”
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 22, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks About The Madness of Shorting Tesla, Expedia’s Capital Raise, the Belt Road Initiative, and “Gooooooold.” PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, Yesterday, I received a text from a close friend who had an idea. He wanted to short a stock that was trading at nosebleed levels, had…
The DailyAlts Playbook: Free Oil, Gold at $3,000, Investment Debt, and Kim Jung Un
On Monday, oil futures fell into negative territory for the first time in market history. With expiration taking place today, producers were forced to pay traders to take crude off their hands at the delivery point at Cushing, Oklahoma. Crude for May delivery fell to negative $37.63 per barrel. This morning, the June contract fell 24% to $15.50, while the Brent crude contract shed nearly 19%.
The DailyAlts Playbook: $0 Oil, How to Play Recreational Cannabis, and Why Macy’s Is Selling RE-backed Bonds…
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 20, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks $0 Oil, How to Play Recreational Cannabis, and Why Macy’s Is Selling RE-backed Bonds… PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, Please forgive my tardiness – but as an economist, I’m trying to figure out what kind of scotch to use to help these oil prices make sense…
The DailyAlts Playbook: How to Disappear, Ugly Economic Numbers, Rental Bailouts, and Just How Long Harvard Thinks We’ll Be Locked Inside Our Homes.
Last week, more than 6.6 million new workers filed for unemployment benefits. This week, the figure topped 5.2 million, bringing the total number of Americans unemployed to 22 million. We have formally wiped out all job gains since the end of the Great Recession.
DailyAlts Playbook: Talks Ackman’s CNBC Defense, Earnings Season Blues, and Hedge Funds’ Small Business Cash Hubbalooza
This morning, the Dow Futures projected a 400-point decline as investors continue to digest the ongoing status of the coronavirus.
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will halt all funding to the World Health Organization as the White House completes its review of the coronavirus outbreak.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Ray Dalio, Weezer Cover Bands, Bank Earnings, and Big Problems at Lime Asset Management.
This morning, financial companies started earnings season with a flurry of reports. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) kicked off the day with news that it has set aside a large amount of cash over fears of potential customer defaults. The firm reported earnings per share of $0.01, much lower than the $0.33 expected among analysts. The firm also missed revenue expectations by a large amount. “Our results were impacted by a $3.1 billion reserve build, which reflected the expected impact these unprecedented times could have on our customers,” said CFO John Shrewsberry said this morning.
DailyAlts Playbook: Academic Suppression, Cuban 2020, Loan Standards, and Daft Punk to DJ Shadow
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 13, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks About Academic Suppression, Cuban 2020, Loan Standards, and Daft Punk to DJ Shadow PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, We return from the holiday weekend with some greater confirmation that this virus likely didn’t come from a Seafood market in China. Of course, we won’t ever be…
The DailyAlts Playbook: Helicopter Money, Pyromaniac Bank Rules, Black Swan Blowout, and Labor Woes
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 9, 2020 The DailyAlts Playbook Talks Helicopter Money, Pyromaniac Bank Rules, Black Swan Blowout, and Labor Woes PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning, I am running late right now because I’m trying to wrap my head around today’s jobless claims and then the Fed’s helicopter money response. The central bank is pumping $2.3…
DailyAlts Playbook Talks Ackman’s Optimism, The Big “Short-ier”, Carbon Skeptics, and Now That’s Music 29
A number of funds saw massive gains during the breakdown in the market between February 20 and March 20. The latest manager to generate headlines is Kevin Smith at Crescat Capital. His two primary funds earned 40.5% and 34.5% during that period. Smith’s co-portfolio manager compared this selloff and their gains to the book The Big Short. While there are always winners, there are also losers. It appears that Bridgewater and Third Point, both run by dynamic managers, had a tough quarter. Bridgewater’s main fund reportedly lost 20% during the quarter. Dan Loeb’s Third Point had an 11% loss last month. Finally, Glenview shed 30% on paper during Q1.
DailyAlts Playbook: Mark Yusko, Bill Ackman, Tiger King, and “Bringing Back Paper Bags…”
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK April 3, 2020 Today, the DailyAlts Playbook Talks About Mark Yusko, Bill Ackman, Tiger King, and “Bringing Back Paper Bags…” PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning: Markets are still locked in negative momentum. Oil bouncing to $26. But are we really going to speculate on oil right now? Perhaps… perhaps it’s worth looking at…
DailyAlts Playbook: Activists in a Pandemic, SoftBank’s WeWork Debacle, High-Yield Defaults, and Demon Days
The Dow Futures rallied more than 340 points after a dismal start to the second quarter. This morning, investors are paying very close attention to the weekly jobless claims from the Department of Labor. Last week, the agency reported that 3.2 million Americans had applied for unemployment benefits. Today, that figure reached six million. Economists had expected roughly four to five million people to file for unemployment, with the high range at nine million.
The DailyAlts Playbook: College!, Record Unemployment, PE Lobbying Efforts, and Icahn’s Failed Merger
This morning, investors are starting to speculate on the March jobs report set for this Friday from the U.S. Labor Department.
DailyAlts Playbook: Margin Call, the WHO’s Latest Projections, Depression Level Unemployment, and Larry Fink’s Outlook.
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve dropped a bombshell on the markets. According to the central bank, up to 47 million Americans could lose their jobs, bringing the U.S. unemployment rate up to 32%.
Alternative Investments: Insider Buying Recap for March 31, 2020
Most analysts expect private equity and activist investors to become very active in buying companies at depressed stock prices. The activists will be urging many companies to make drastic changes deigned to force the stock price higher, giving them outsized profits. When an activist takes a position of 5% or more in a particular company and intends to engage with management on an active basis. Tracking those filings each day can help us determine which companies and industries are attracting buying from these investors.
DailyAlts Playbook: Commercial Real Estate Woes, Crude Collapse, 2002 Music Reviews, and Ackman’s “Hell is Coming” Defense
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK March 30, 2020 Today, the DailyAlts Playbook talks about Commercial Real Estate Woes, Crude Collapse, 2002 Music Reviews, and Ackman’s “Hell is Coming” Defense. PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning: The markets are flat this morning, and my projection this week is that we’re looking at more downside pressure. We are likely heading into…
DailyAlts Playbook: Money Printing, Jams on the 90s, and Why Sovereign Funds are Struggling
The Dow Jones projected a 680-point decline in premarket hours as the markets selloff from a massive three-day rally. The mainstream press is back in cheerleader mode, proclaiming that the Bear market is over, despite the fact that the American economy is effectively shutting down for the foreseeable future.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Jobless Claims, Ackman’s Short Bet, and “Billion-Airs”
This morning, markets are preparing for a record jump in the number of weekly jobless claims. We’ve seen projections ranging between 1 million and 3.4 million, well above the 281,000 from last Thursday. [UPDATE: U.S. claims came in at 3.28 million this week] This news comes after the U.S. Senate passed a $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package that includes direct payments to Americans and provides hundreds of billions in support to U.S. industries negatively impacted by the ongoing economic crisis.
DailyAlts Playbook: March 24 – The Leaders We Deserve, Why Twitter Debates are Worse than Orioles Games, SALT’s Cancelation, and Coronavirus Updates
Global coronavirus cases surpassed 382,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. The ongoing surge in cases has fueled an “unprecedented” collapse in economic activity in Europe during March.
DailyAlts Playbook: Helicopter Money, Amazon’s New Mission, and the Crash that “No One Called”
THE DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK March 23, 2020 Today, the DailyAlts Playbook talks about Helicopter Money, Amazon’s New Mission, and the Crash that “No One Called” PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning: I wrote a rather lengthy piece last night on Neel Kashkari and the 60 Minutes interview last night in which I discussed his take on helicopter money….
The DailyAlts Playbook: Corona Cases Surge, Warnings from 2012, Universa’s Massive Win, and Party Bros
Today, the DailyAlts Playbook talks the Surge in Corona Cases, Warnings from 2012, Universa’s Massive Win, and Party Bros.
The DailyAlts Playbook: Buyback Blowback, Hyperbolic Growth, and the Movement to Stop Short-Selling (for now).
The Dow Jones projected an 821-point decline as the futures market hit limit down yet again Wednesday morning. The volatile opening comes a day after the Trump administration announced plans to inject roughly $1 trillion into the U.S. economy to help consumers manage their finances. The Dow is now off 28% from its record high. Should another 7% drop in the S&P 500 come this morning, it would trigger the first level of three circuit breakers.
The DailyAlts Playbook: March 17, 2020
DAILYALTS PLAYBOOK March 17, 2020 Today, the DailyAlts Playbook talks about Medical Properties Trust, Roof Monsters, and What’s Happening in Washington. PRIME OVERVIEW Good morning: Apologies that Monday’s Playbook didn’t make it out. MailChimp had some issues. We have been following our models and sitting on cash since late February, so we’re riding this out….