Recession or not? 60% of Americans think ‘yes’ in uncanny 2007 deja vu

September 16, 2019 | Alternative Investments
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An ABC/Washington Post poll finds six out of ten Americans expect a 2020 recession.

A 2020 recession has many Americans worried about the economy. A new survey showed nearly the same result as the 69% opinion observed in November 2007, some months before the global financial crisis.

Americans are despondent from the U.S.-China trade wars. Pessimism is high despite an economic climate of low unemployment. Roughly 60% of people also felt that they would have to pay higher prices because of the trade wars.

Analysts and consultancies also afflicted by doom and gloom

Analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted a recession in the US economy due to the cost impact of Trump’s tariff hikes. These tariffs would compound the cost issues companies are already dealing with, they said.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch consumer confidence indicator dipped 3.8 points to 50.1 in September, marking a new low. The bank’s economists attributed this decline to the dampening impact of trade wars.

According to Jeffrey Gundlach, who manages $140 billion for DoubleLine Capital, the recession risk in 2020 has grown to 75%. He said investors should be wary of the phenomenon of the yield curve inversion occurring and then going away.

Trump and the parties

Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s ratings fell somewhat according to the poll. His job approval statistics declined from a 44% high in July to 33%.

The poll also found that 90% of Republicans were optimistic about economic conditions, whereas this was only 33% for Democrats.

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