Further, the researchers found that exceeding the 2C increase has a 50% chance of happening by mid-century.

A new study warns that the world is close to exceeding a critical climate threshold, signaling that time is rapidly running out to avoid the most disastrous effects of global warming.

Researchers from Stanford University and Colorado State University used artificial intelligence (AI) to predict warming timelines and found that the Earth is likely to reach 1.5C of warming above industrial levels within the next decade. (The Guardian)

The study also showed that there is a 50% chance that the Earth will exceed 2C of warming, which international scientists have identified as a tipping point, by mid-century.

The scientists used a neural network, a type of AI that recognizes relationships in large sets of data, to analyze a wide range of global climate model simulations and determine timelines for temperature thresholds. The model found that there is a nearly 70% chance that the 2C threshold will be crossed between 2044 and 2065, even if emissions rapidly decline.

The AI was tested by entering historical measurements, and it correctly identified both the 1.1C warming reached by 2022 and the patterns and pace observed in recent decades.

The two temperature benchmarks, outlined as crisis points by the United Nations Paris agreement, will have vastly different outcomes globally. A difference of half a degree may not seem significant, but the impacts will be exponential, intensifying consequences for ecosystems and all living things that depend on them.

The difference between 1.5C and 2C will result in twice the amount of lost habitat for plants and three times the amount for insects. The change will also increase the risk of natural disasters, such as droughts, floods, firestorms, and heatwaves.

The impact of global warming will not be equally felt by all regions and communities. Developing countries and small island nations, already on the frontlines of the crisis, will be hit hardest.

The most vulnerable and less affluent will disproportionately suffer the ill effects of climate change more, and these devastating divisions are expected to deepen.

The study on global warming makes a more urgent case for curbing emissions and adapting to the effects that are already beginning to unfold. While there is still time to prevent further escalation and prepare for the effects that are already brewing, it requires both greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation.

Climate scientists have long been warning of the near-inevitability of crossing 1.5C, but this study offers a new way of predicting key windows and highlights the urgency of the situation.

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