Alternative Investments/Real Estate: Housing Market Demand Is “Insane”
Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman says the boom could last into next year.
Speaking to CNBC on Power Lunch, Glenn Kelman, CEO of real estate brokerage Redfin (NASDAQ: RDFN), said he expected the current boom conditions in the housing market to last well into next year. He attributed the high demand to affluent professionals looking for remote homes as well as low interest rates. Also, he thinks some sellers will put their properties on the market only after the presidential election. (CNBC)
Kelman: Too good to last forever
“This level of demand is absolutely insane. I would expect it to last into 2021, at least,” Kelman said.
Recent data from the National Association of Realtors shows up the strength in the housing market.
Existing home sales shot up 9.4% in September beating expectations. Even though the median purchase price of a home rose approximately 15% year over year, there is just a 2.7-month supply of for-sale homes, showing tight market inventory conditions.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 2.80% for the week ending Oct. 22, down from 2.81% in the previous week and 3.75% a year ago, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Therefore, mortgage rates crept even lower in the latest week.
However, “there’s no way it can last forever,” Kelman warned of the bullish conditions.
Canada: Off the charts
Meanwhile, at the northern neighbor, home sales activity in September is described as “off-the-charts.”
Housing data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) last week showed a nationwide year-over-year increase in sales of 45.6%.
This was a new all-time monthly record for the third month in a row.
“This is starting to sound like a broken record (about records being broken), but Canadian home sales and prices set records once again in September … as they did in July and August,” said Shaun Cathcart, senior economist at CREA, in a statement.
Real Estate ETFs in the U.S.
The year-to-date performance of some real estate ETFs is shown below:
iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) +24.61%
SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) +20.83%
Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF -13.91%
It may be noted that despite the boom conditions in housing, real estate ETFs and stocks have declined in recent days.
According to Barron’s, this may be due to yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries moving higher in recent weeks.
Other reasons could be fears of inflation ticking up in the future amidst an improving economic situation.
Nevertheless, the view is that interest rates are likely to remain low for longer. So demand may remain strong.
“Part of what is fueling this boom is that the economy has just split into two and rich people are able to access capital almost for free, so, of course, they’re going to use that money to buy homes,” said Redfin’s Kelman.
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