Bank of America: ETF Assets to Go 10X, Hit $50 Trillion in 10 Years
Make this is the first monster prediction of the new decade.”
ETF assets could hit $50 trillion by 2030, a figure that is more than ten times current levels, according to Bank of America. The bank also said this week that these assets may hit $5.3 trillion by the end of 2020 (Note: total assets are $4.3 trillion as of this publication date).
Bank of America noted that the ETF industry has exploded since the inception of the S&P 500 SPDR in 1993. Just ten years ago, it was a $770 billion industry. Growth of 25% per year has and could continue, according to the note released by BOA on Thursday.
ETF Assets To Explode?
The bank has predicted a 5% growth rate for the markets next year. It projects that growth in the ETF sector will make passive investors more content thanks to a variety of improving factors.
“The current growth rate points to ETF assets approaching $50tn over the next decade driven by a continued move to passive and increased awareness of the attractive tax efficiency, cost, liquidity and transparency characteristics of ETFs,” Mary Ann Bartels, investment & ETF Strategist at Bank of America, said in a note on Thursday.
Despite the lofty projections, several concerns have emerged about the state of the industry. A number of players are shutting down ETFs due to the lack of economies of scale. At the start of October, 90 funds closed down for the year. That figure was on pace to match the 139 that closed in 2018.
“The challenge is as the industry has more and more participants it becomes harder to expand out into the marketplace,” Michael Sapir, CEO of ETF issuer ProShares, told the Wall Street Journal in October. “There’s a lot of roadkill out there,” he added. “The numbers for launches and closures suggest a stable and mature industry that has already seen its most dramatic growth but still has plenty of runway ahead of it.”
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