Digital Assets: Bloomberg’s Bitcoin Analysis – $20K in 2020
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone sticks with his bullish stance on bitcoin, the ‘first-born’ cryptocurrency, calling it a “resting bull.”
McGlone’s analysis in the June 2020 Edition of the Bloomberg Crypto Outlook colors both gold and bitcoin (BTC) in the same bullish hues.
“The metal and the crypto remain our top candidates to advance in 2020, with added rally fuel from Covid-19,” writes McGlone.
Here are key takeaways from the report.
- Extrapolating BTC’s 2019 price action BTC’s high in 2020 could be double that of its 2019 high of $14,000, or in other words, a 2020 high of $28,000.
- Both bitcoin and gold are breaking away in outperformance with respect to their sector peers (BTC vs other cryptos, and gold vs other commodities).
- Judging by historical price performance from 2014 onwards, BTC “will approach the record high of about $20,000 this year, in our view, if it follows 2016’s trend.”
- Both BTC (at $9,000) and gold ($1,700) are building a base for further rallies.
- “Amid historic declines in equities and the world’s most significant commodity, the first-born crypto’s probe lower was promptly rejected, indicating a firming price foundation,” writes McGlone.
- BTC’s 260-day volatility measure is the lowest ever versus the Nasdaq. Note that BTC’s volatility usually increases when its price rises.
- The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is consistently mopping up a significant proportion of newly-mined BTC, absorbing about 25% of annual supply, showing investors’ preference for buy-and-hold.
- Rising open interest in BTC futures, as well as premium, indicates its maturation as an asset and the chances of a rally.
- Bitcoin on-chain addresses are at a two-year high and support BTC above $10,000.
In sum, “something needs to go really wrong for bitcoin to not appreciate,” says McGlone.
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