An international team of researchers at the Frontier Development Lab – a public-private partnership that includes NASA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of Energy, have developed DAGGER for the purpose.

Researchers have developed an AI-based model that combines satellite data and machine learning to predict where an impending solar storm will strike on Earth, offering 30 minutes of advance warning. The model, called DAGGER (Deep Learning Geomagnetic Perturbation), analyses spacecraft measurements of the solar wind, a stream of material from the Sun, and forecasts geomagnetic disturbances worldwide. (NASA)

These storms can severely impact power grids and other critical infrastructure. The DAGGER team tested the model against two geomagnetic storms that happened in August 2011 and March 2015 and was able to forecast the storm’s impacts around the world quickly and accurately.

DAGGER is the first model to combine AI and real measurements from space and across Earth to produce frequently updated predictions that are prompt and precise for sites worldwide. The DAGGER model’s computer code is available as an open-source, which enables power grid operators, satellite controllers, telecommunications companies, and other organizations to utilize its predictions to cater to their specific requirements.

By warning these stakeholders, DAGGER has the capability to offer sufficient time for individuals to take necessary measures to safeguard their assets and infrastructure against an imminent solar storm. As we approach the next “solar maximum,” a peak in the Sun’s 11-year activity cycle, in 2025, the probability of geomagnetic storms and their catastrophic impact on our society is on the rise.

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